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Hey Friends,
The National Football League (NFL) has spent the last several months making a strong push to change the future of America’s most popular sport. No, I’m not talking about new overtime rules or more sports betting—I’m talking about flag football.
"When we talk about the future of the game of football, it is, no question, flag," NFL Executive Vice President Troy Vincent told The Associated Press. "When I've been asked over the last 24 months, in particular, what does the next 100 years look like when you look at football, not professional football, it's flag. It's the inclusion and the true motto of 'football for all.' There is a place in flag football for all."
And the league has set a lofty goal: inclusion in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.
So most of you are probably wondering what this even means. And while it may be slightly confusing initially—millions of people spend an entire day for 20+ straight weeks watching the NFL because 200-pound-plus men crash into each other at 40 times the force of gravity—I think this can really just be broken down into two pieces.
First, we all know the NFL is dangerous. More than 320 former NFL players, including Demarius Thomas, Aaron Hernandez, Vincent Jackson, Ken Stabler, and Frank Gifford, have been diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) post-mortem. And the sad fact is that not only are there plenty more players that were never tested, but a definitive diagnosis of CTE can only be determined after death.
Of course, as this information has become more clear over the last few decades, parents have taken notice. NFL greats like Bo Jackson have publically rallied against children playing tackle football, and the youth participation rate for tackle football in the United States has dropped nearly 50% over the last decade—from 8.4M to sub 5M.
So you would assume this is about safety. It’s probably a decent solution to slow the declining participation rate while you continue to develop safety protocols and attempt to convince teenagers to try tackle when they reach high school, right? Well, maybe, but like most things, I think the driving incentive here is actually just money.
For example, the NFL is a massive business today. The league will pull in around $20 billion in revenue this year, and Roger Goodell has been clear about his 5-year goal: $25 billion in annual revenue by 2027, which he first publically stated back in 2010.
But the problem is that the NFL is still predominantly a United States-based league.
Sure, they have played games in London for over a decade. They have played in Mexico since 2016, and they are even sending the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Germany this year for the first time in history. But the reality is that international expansion is still extremely small compared to domestic revenues.
So that’s where the Olympics come in. Flag football is easier and cheaper to play than tackle football, of course, but earning an Olympic Charter is a massive step towards the NFL’s goal of adding 50 million international fans in the next ten years.
Why? Because obtaining an Olympic Charter requires the sport to be practiced by men in at least 75 countries and on four continents, and by women in at least 40 countries and on three continents. That level of participation would increase international investment and expand the global pipeline of players. But more importantly, it would bring in hundreds of millions of fans through competition.
And here’s the good news: With flag football being included in this year’s World Games in Alabama, a record 39 national teams across four continents are already competing in the sport. So while there is still a long way to go before flag football officially becomes an Olympic sport, I certainly wouldn’t count it out, especially with the world’s most profitable sports league pushing the narrative and driving the change.
I hope everyone has a great day. We’ll talk tomorrow.
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You caught it all when you said "200 plus lb men hitting each other at 40 times the force of gravity". Flag football is soccer-level excitement. Is tackle a blood sport? Yes. Is that the appeal? Yes. If the NFL wants to make money it will be on tackle football. The NBA has shown that a less-physical product can be successful. The NFL may continue that trend and be fine.
Flag football? Non-starter.