The Chicago Bears (Potential) New Stadium Complex In Arlington Heights

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Hey Friends,

The Chicago Bears organization has released the first renderings of a potential new stadium complex in Arlington Heights, Illinois. The new stadium would be about 40 minutes north-west of their current home, Soldier Field, and they want to develop the 326 acres into “a multi-purpose entertainment district.”

The entertainment district would include restaurants, office space, a hotel, a fitness center, parks, and various other open spaces — think of it like the Milwaukee Bucks’ Deer District, the St. Louis Cardinals Ballpark Village, and the Atlanta Braves Battery. 

And in addition to being home to the NFL’s Chicago Bears, the organization has made it clear that the stadium would be designed to also host the Super Bowl, the College Football Playoffs, the Final Four, and other big-time events.

But now that we’ve seen the fancy renderings, the real question becomes: How much is this stadium going to cost, and who will pay for it?

Well, that part might be a little less clear. The Chicago Bears have already signed a purchase agreement to acquire the 326-acre parcel of land in Arlington Heights for $197.2 million. However, they will have to spend another $84 million if they want to break their lease at Soldier Field before 2033, and the actual stadium will reportedly be privately funded, which could cost the Bears another $2 billion.

Total Cost Of Recently Built NFL Stadiums

• Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas): $1.9 billion, opened in 2020

• SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles): $5.5 billion, opened in 2020

• Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta): $1.5 billion, opened in 2017

• US Bank Stadium (Minneapolis): $1.1 billion, opened in 2016

• Levi’s Stadium (San Francisco): $1.3 billion, opened in 2014

• MetLife Stadium (New York): $1.7 billion, opened in 2010

• AT&T Stadium (Dallas): $1.4 billion, opened in 2009

In total, the Bears might spend around $2.5 billion on this move.

But the other part of the equation is the entertainment district, which the Bears will ask to be publicly funded, potentially making things more difficult.

Why? Because for those that don’t remember, taxpayers covered $432 million of the $690 million Soldier Field renovation in 2002, and not only are the Bears trying to relocate less than two decades later, but the state of Illinois remains cash-strapped amid serious budget challenges. That makes it less likely they would do it again.

Still, that hasn’t stopped the Bears from making bold claims about the projected economic impact that their potential new stadium could have:

• Jobs created: 48,000 

• Long-term jobs created: 9,750

• Economic impact of construction work to Chicagoland: $9.4 billion 

• Worker labor income: $3.9 billion 

• Annual economic impact for Chicagoland: $1.4 billion 

• Annual labor income for Chicagoland workers: $601 million

• Arlington Heights annual tax revenue: $16 million 

• Cook County annual tax revenue: $9.8 million 

• State of Illinois annual tax revenue: $51.3 million

Of course, I haven’t seen the numbers or the calculation they are using. But my experience with this type of stuff is that it is generally overstated and exaggerated, especially in the case of the NFL, which is driven by local revenue and essentially just shifts tax money from one county to another—aka no new tax revenue.

“Whenever anyone is offering up an economic impact number, a good rule of thumb is to move the decimal one place to the left,” University of Chicago economics Prof. Allen Sanderson told the Chicago Sun-Times, noting he hasn’t seen the team’s research. “It doesn’t matter if it’s the Bears, or a local chamber of commerce, or a mayor — 90% of that is hyperbole or just inflated. It’s especially true in the NFL, because money affiliated with the team is local in nature. People will be watching the Bears whether they’re in Soldier Field or Arlington Heights. Money gets redistributed, but the net addition is usually minimal,” Sanderson said.

Instead, I think it’s worth discussing *why* the Bears would potentially spend $2 billion-plus on a new NFL stadium.

First, their current stadium is not great. Soldier Field sits 61,500 people and is the smallest stadium in the NFL, despite Chicago being the third-largest metro area in the U.S. with 9.5 million people. Add in the fact that virtually every NFL player complains about the playing surface, and it’s not hard to see they need a new stadium.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the Bears stand to make significantly more money by owning their own stadium. For example, instead of revenue-sharing with the city of Chicago through Soldier Field, the Bears can take back complete control of the 20% NFL teams make annually from ticket revenue. And if the team owns the entire 326-acre site of their stadium-based entertainment district, they will make even more money from real estate and rental agreements on the property.

This isn’t a done deal, and we probably won’t have absolute clarity on the situation for at least a few more months. But given the Bears are currently the NFL’s 5th most valuable franchise at $5.8 billion, according to Forbes, this represents a significant investment in the franchise's future and signifies they aren’t messing around.

Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.

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