The Data Behind MLB's 2023 Rule Changes
The Data Behind MLB's 2023 Rule Changes
Huddle Up is a 3x weekly newsletter that breaks down the business and money behind sports. If you are not already a subscriber, sign up and join 91,000+ others who receive it directly in their inbox each week.
Today At A Glance:
The 2023 Major League Baseball season is less than a month away, and this year’s game will look a lot different. So today’s newsletter breaks down the current state of Major League Baseball and the rule changes that will be implemented this year.
Today’s Newsletter Is Brought To You By Goldin!
The world’s top 500 sports cards have an ROI of 855% over the last 15 years, compared to just 175% for the S&P 500 — and there is no better place to start or build your collectible portfolio than Goldin.
Goldin is the leading and most trusted destination for some of the most significant pieces of sports and pop culture collectibles. Their marketplace is open 24/7, they have weekly auctions starting at just $5, and there is something for every collector.
And here’s the best part: Goldin is offering No Marketplace Fees for items sold up to $10k. So vault and list your items on Goldin's Marketplace now to enjoy this limited-time offer. I’m a big fan, and I think you will be too.
Friends,
Attention spans have decreased dramatically over the last several decades.
For example, according to a recent digital media study from the University of California, the average human’s ability to focus on a screen has dropped from 2½ minutes in 2004 to an average of 47 seconds today — that’s a 70% decline.
We know this, of course. The iPhone debuted in 2007, and the average user now picks up their phone more than 1,500 times per week. TikTok then introduced 15-second clips in 2016, and teenagers now spend an average of 95 minutes per day on the app.
This transformation has shifted everything — from how we think and live, to the products and services we consume. And when it comes to sports, no league has been impacted more than Major League Baseball (MLB).
Take a look at this chart, for example. Major League Baseball was founded in 1876 and is the world’s oldest major professional sports league. But a shift has occurred over the last 50 years, and baseball is now ranked as America’s third most popular sport.
And that chart is just the tip of the iceberg. Not only do superstars like Aaron Judge and Mike Trout have significantly smaller audiences than their counterparts across football, basketball, and soccer, but MLB teams averaged just 26,566 fans per game last year — that’s MLB’s lowest attendance since their average of 26,509 in 1996.
Instagram Followers By Athlete
Aaron Judge: 1.6 million
Mike Trout: 2 million
Tom Brady: 13.6 million
Serena Williams: 16.3 million
LeBron James: 147 million
Cristiano Ronaldo: 552 million
2007: 80 million
2010: 73 million
2022: 65 million
Now, several factors are driving this generational decline in interest. For example, the average MLB game in 2022 lasted more than 3 hours, which is a significant commitment considering baseball’s 162-game season.
Average Length Of Game (American sports with 82+ games)
NHL (82 games): 2 hours and 20 minutes
NBA (82 games): 2 hours to 2 hours and 30 minutes
MLB (162 games): 3 hours and 3 minutes
There has also been a decline in offense, with the 2022 league batting average of .243 being the lowest since 1968. And the average age of an MLB fan has increased from 52 to 57, which is the oldest average age among major American sports leagues.
Average Fan Age By Sports League
MLS: 40
NBA: 42
NHL: 49
NFL: 50
So Major League Baseball has taken notice over the last several years and decided to implement a new set of rules this year designed to improve the pace of play.
Here are a few of the most notable rule changes fans will see in 2023.
Pitch Clock
The most significant change coming in 2023 is the introduction of a pitch clock.
Pitchers will have 15 seconds to start pitching the ball when the bases are empty and 20 seconds to start pitching the ball when runners are on base.
Hitters are required to step into the batter’s box within the first 8 seconds.
If the pitcher doesn’t comply with the rule, the batter will be awarded a ball.
If the hitter doesn’t comply with the rule, the pitcher will be awarded a strike.
This rule was specifically implemented to increase the speed of play — and early results indicate it will do just that.
For example, the use of pitch clocks in minor league games last year cut the average game time by 25 minutes, from 3 hours and 3 minutes to 2 hours and 38 minutes. And it appears this will also translate to the big leagues, with the first two games of Spring Training lasting between 2 hours and 29 minutes and 2 hours and 33 minutes.
Limited Pickoffs
Major League Baseball has also decided to limit pickoffs this season.
Pitchers are now only allowed three pickoff attempts for runners on base.
But there’s a catch — the first two pickoff attempts result in no consequences. However, if a pitcher does not get a runner out on their third attempt, the play is counted as a balk, and the runner advances to the next base.
This rule was implemented throughout the minor leagues last season and played a crucial role in helping reduce the average game time by 25 minutes.
Larger Bases
Given the reduction in offense over the last several years, Major League Baseball has decided to increase the size of each base from 15 inches to 18 inches.
This will reduce the distance between bases by 4.5 inches, and the hope is that it will encourage more base stealing and reduce the risk of injuries (e.g., first basemen getting stepped on and reducing collisions on the basepaths).
For example, in a 2021 Triple-A trial run, one league saw a 2.2% increase in stolen bases, and another had a 0.7% rate increase. The stolen base success rate also increased by 10% from 68% to 78%.
Defensive Shift Limits
MLB is also hoping that offense will increase by eliminating the defensive shift.
The defensive team must have a minimum of four players in the infield.
The defensive team must have at least two players on either side of second base.
The data is a bit spotty here, but MLB reportedly expects this rule change to generate an additional 1-2 hits per game (and improve last year’s .243 batting average).
Major League Baseball is also experimenting with several other rule changes. Like robot umpires, for example, which are currently being tested throughout the minor leagues and have reduced game times by an additional 9 minutes on average.
MLB Robot Umpire Overview
The umpire keeps an iPhone in their back pocket connected to an earbud; the automated strike zone system signals a ball or strike with an automated male voice into the earbud after each pitch, then the umpire physically states the call.
The TrackMan system uses doppler radar technology, a 3-D dish hung above home plate, to track and identify the pitch’s location, then communicates that information to the iPhone connected to the umpire’s earpiece.
Fun note: The system initially used AirPods in the Atlantic League, but their battery kept dying. So, they switched to a wired earbud.
TrackMan can generate each batter’s size and stance to establish an appropriate strike zone (e.g., a 6’ 7” Aaron Judge won’t have the same strike zone as a 5’ 6” Jose Altuve).
Umpires can override a call if there’s an obvious error, like a bounced ball at the plate called a strike.
A TrackMan crew sits in the press box during the game to manage the system's equipment, which includes a laptop that displays the graphic of the strike zone for each individual batter.
But regardless, the bottom line is clear. Despite bringing in a record $10.8 billion in revenue last year, Major League Baseball has seen the data and has decided to implement several new rules this year to increase offense and the pace of play.
We’ll see how it goes — but the game will undoubtedly look very different.
I hope everyone has a great day. We’ll talk on Wednesday.
Interested in advertising with Huddle Up? Email me.
Your feedback helps me improve Huddle Up. How did you like today’s post?
Loved | Great | Good | Meh | Bad
Extra Credit: The World Cup Effect Is Real For MLS
Major League Soccer (MLS) kicked off its 28th season this past weekend, and the early attendance numbers are impressive.
Huddle Up is a 3x weekly newsletter that breaks down the business and money behind sports. If you are not already a subscriber, sign up and join 91,000+ others who receive it directly in their inbox each week.
It’s sad to see our attention span decreasing. We’ve become to attached to our devices and so used to automated behaviour, we don’t tend to realize what it is that we’re are doing
Great post, but curious why you filtered out the length of NFL games, which typically last about 3 hours, even though there’s roughly only 15 minutes of game action (WSJ study shows an average play only lasts 4 seconds). That would make them the second longest game if included with baseball, basketball, and hockey, but still waaaay ahead in terms of popularity. I don’t think shortening the time of baseball games is going to increase the popularity of the sport or the following of its star players on social media.