The Most Important Storylines Of The 2024 NFL Season
From the league's international ambitions to Tom Brady's $375 million broadcasting contract, the 2024 NFL season has plenty of big storylines to discuss.
Congrats, everyone. We made it. The 2024 NFL season officially kicks off tomorrow night. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions face off against the Baltimore Ravens in primetime. Then, the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will travel to São Paulo for the league’s first-ever regular season game in Brazil.
It should be a great season. The world’s most profitable sports league is more popular than ever. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and the league’s 32 owners expect another record-breaking season, and increasingly large revenue-sharing agreements have made it so even tier 2 wide receivers are making $20 million for 17 games of work.
The NFL is in a good place, that’s for sure. However, there are still plenty of questions, like how Tom Brady will navigate purchasing a minority stake in the Las Vegas Raiders with his $375 million broadcasting contract or if Netflix’s acquisition of two Christmas Day games should scare the league’s longstanding broadcast partners.
So today, we’re going to do something a little different. Rather than a long-form essay on one topic, below are some of the most important things I’ll be watching this season.
P.S. I’m hosting a live (virtual) podcast tonight with Andrew Brandt. Andrew is fantastic because he has sat on several sides of the table — Packers executive, player agent, and media personality — so we will meet for an hour to discuss the NFL’s biggest storylines in 2024. It’s free to join, but spaces are limited, and over 450 people have already signed up, so reserve your spot now through the link below.
Also, thank you to everyone who submitted questions ahead of time. We already have over 100 ready to go and will answer as many as possible during the 60-minute session.
Private Equity Has Arrived: The NFL recently approved private equity investment in its teams. The rules are more strict than other leagues — NFL teams can sell up to 10% of their cap table to PE funds while most other leagues are at 30% — but this should help provide liquidity to current majority and minority owners. It will also help push franchise valuations even higher, as the base of buyers was getting small.
However, I’d be remiss not to mention that some of the “Private equity is bad!!” hand-wringing is misguided. Most people seem to be saying that because private equity firms are famous for buying businesses on leverage, selling off their most liquid assets, and raiding their cash coffers to pay dividends to themselves and shareholders.
But that’s not what will happen here. These private equity funds are essentially just investment vehicles designed to give rich people diversified access to an asset class they wouldn’t have otherwise been able to afford or get into. These funds will have no voting rights, no say in team decisions, and won’t come with anything outside of bragging rights and a potential profit down the road. Or, in other words, these investors are being brought in to make wealthy owners even wealthier, but they shouldn’t have a significant impact on fans, as every other league already allows it.
Christmas Day Ambitions: Netflix shocked everyone when it ponied up $150 million for two Christmas Day games this year. It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that the NFL was going back on its word that they wouldn’t play holiday games on non-standard gamedays (think: Monday, Thursday, Sunday), as the ratings are just too good to pass up. But the news got everyone talking — was Netflix going all-in on sports? What would this mean for the NFL’s next media rights package? And more importantly, how would the NFL’s current partners, who pay over $10 billion annually, handle it?
Most of this reaction is overblown. We have already talked about how Netflix is primarily using these games to boost its ad-supported subscription service — NFL primetime games are perfect because viewers are already accustomed to ads, and Netflix can charge premium rates ($5 million for a package of eight 30-second ad slots).
However, this will serve as a good test of 1) potential subscription fatigue and 2) the upcoming market for media rights. The NFL has been pretty careful about spreading its product too thin, but fans will now need four different streaming services (+ YouTube TV and Sunday Ticket) to watch every NFL game this season. And with the NFL expected to opt out of its current $110 billion media rights deal later this decade, NFL owners are hoping Netflix becomes a more serious bidder during the next deal.
Brazil’s First International Game: One thing that has flown a bit under the radar leading up to the 2024 season is the NFL’s first game in Brazil. I get why the NFL wants to host a game in Brazil. But it’s worth mentioning there are serious security risks — many players aren’t bringing their families, and the NFL’s security team has essentially told them not to leave the hotel unless they are going to the stadium — and that’s without even mentioning the fact that Brazil’s highest court just blocked its 200 million citizens from using Twitter/X, a clear fight against free speech.
Now, the NFL isn’t stupid. They’ll have appropriate security, and the game will probably go off without a hitch. However, it feels like an unnecessary risk, especially considering sporting events have been moved for much less serious reasons before.